When Goals Get In The Way

When Goals Get In The Way

The thief who stole my travel wallet at the Barcelona train station must have been a high jumper. Before sitting down on a bench to organize my papers, I’d been careful to make sure no one was around. After the theft, I found an escalator behind the bench, but it was still hard to believe: the thief must have run up the down escalator and leapt over the wall the moment I put my wallet on the bench to set down my backpack. A medal-worthy performance, except that it happened to me.

Right Tool, Wrong Job

Right Tool, Wrong Job

It was the early 1980’s, just after the debut of MTV and right before Apple launched the Macintosh personal computer. Future economics professor Campbell Harvey was considering what to study for his Ph.D. thesis at the University of Chicago. The world had just emerged from a traumatic recession, so he decided to see if there might be a way to anticipate the next slowdown. Intrigued by an academic paper written two decades earlier, he looked at whether the bond market held any helpful information, and panning through rivers of data, he found gold.